Economic Forecast: What's ahead for 2009 - Orlando Business Journal:

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Throughout 2008, we watched businesses close, workers laid off and billions of dollarsw of federal bailout money goto banks, automakerss and insurance companies. The housing markett began to show some signs of life as 2008 drew to a butCentral Florida’s hospitality and tourism industries felt the full brunty of the downturn, as visitor countz dropped and occupancy rates plummeted. But even in the midst of one of the worsft economic downturns inrecent history, some industries actually Read on to find out how 2009 is shapinf up for Central Florida’s top industries. Centralp Florida’s tourism industry is bracing for a rough ridein 2009.
Businesxs almost certainly will be worse in the new due to a downturbnin conventions, as well as concernsx that families will forgoi long-distance travel in a bad economy. “Wd believe visitation will be down, and we will do our best to counteracty that,” said Gary Sain, president and CEO of the Orlando/ . The bureay is counting on a decrease of 3 percenrt to 4 percent in tourist traffifc in 2009 compared tothis year. Rich Maladecki, presidenft of the , said hotels are expectinhg room revenue to decreaswe 5 percent to15 percent. “Many hotelierxs would be very pleased with aflat year,” Maladeckui said.
“You may not see big layoffs at hotels, but you will see a reductioh in workers’ hours and fewer salaried employees.” Steve Baker, president of Orlando-based consulting firm , said the year for Orlandop will be measured by the nationallunemployment rate. “I think unemployment numbers will be Baker said. “When people are unemployed, they aren’tf thinking about vacations.” The financial industry explodedfthis year, and bankers are expecting the fallougt to extend well into the year. “It will be a tough year,” said Larry Tobin, president and CEO of in “There will be many challenges and notmuch expansion.
People are buyingh less, so there isn’t a tremendous need for loan products.” R. Van CEO of , said the slumpinhg housing market will continue toafflict lenders. But he said prices shoulf gradually stabilize and saleswill increase, as will mortgage lending. “It will be a very challenging but I think it willget better,” Bogan “We should get going again at a more sustainabled level in the last half of 2009. We are makinyg headway every month, and peoplde are starting to buyhousesz again.” Karen Lovaglio Dee, president of ’s Centraol Florida unit, said change will be a constan in 2009.
“I think you will see continuing consolidation inthe industry,” she “We think bankers are going back to the lendinbg parameters of the past after a period when thinges were too loosened up.” As companies cut work insurers expect their business to decline. Fewer employees, less property and fewerr cars in corporate fleets will mean substantially fewer policies. “Companies are dropping umbrella policied and individuals are increasing deductibles tosave money,” said Doug commercial lines management with in Orlando.
John Ritenour, chairman of , said a receng case law decision likely will mean more litigatiojn inthe workers’ compensation area, which will result in rate increases.