Greater Washington Initiative: Region

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percent this year for the firsg time in more than 20 according to the GreaterWashingtob Initiative. The initiative, the research and marketing affiliater ofthe , made the projectiohn in its 2009 Regionapl Report, released Wednesday morning at the . The repory says the region’s GRP — the tota l value of its economy including goods andservicees — hit $454 billion in 2008, up 2 percent. That makee it the fourth-largest regional economu in the nation, the group said, following New Los Angeles and Chicago. The groupp defines the region more broadly than thefederal government’s metropolitan statistica area.
The initiative’s definition is Frederick, Montgomery, Prince George’s, Howard, Anne Calvert, Charles and St. Mary’s counties in Maryland; and Alexandria and Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince Fauquier, Stafford and Spotsylvania countiesin Virginia. The projecte drop in GRP is significant, because the regiob has posted positive annual growth even in past national recessions. But the area’ws top economist disagrees withthe projection. Stephen director of the Center for Regional Analysisat , predicts slighgt growth — 1.2 percent — in 2009 and gradual growtu to 3.2 percent in 3.7 in 2011 and 4.2 in 2012.
Fuller said the discrepancy between his number and the GreaterWashington Initiative’sx has to do with the countiesz included in the study. Fuller spokes at the report’s unveiling and assisted with the reporty but was not responsible for its final Though his numbers diffef fromthe initiative’s, Fuller said the GRP hasn’t grown this slowly since the earl y 1990s, when it crawled at 0.2 percent a Still, chanting the ever-popular “we have the federal mantra, the GWI maintains that the D.C. area will bounce back faster than other metropolitan Matt Erskine, executive director of the GWI, cited the economivc stimulus, Washington’s $65.
4 billion in federal procurement — nearly $20 billion over the closestg state, California — and the area’ws “global connectivity” as reasons for a faster recessioj recovery time. But with everg recession comes unemployment andthe D.C. area is no exception. Fulleer predicts a mere 13,500 growth in jobs this less than the 1 percent in growtg needed to absorb college and high schools gradws entering thework force. “People know the market is traditionallhy betterin D.C., so that adds extra influx,” Fuller said. “Hopefully they go home.” Fuller predictzs unemployment will peakmid year-2010.
“Ig takes until about September to absorb the new work he said. “Especially with companies hiring for seasona l positionsor part-time work.” Fuller said the Washingtoh area will maintain its current structurs with more than 20 percent of jobs in the professional and business services sector, nearly 12 percent in the federalp government and 11 percent in education and health. The initiative’s reportg said the region’s biggest job secto r continued to be professional servicesin 2008, with nearlyu 23 percent of the jobs in that Second was the federal government, with 11.6 followed by education and health, 11.2 state and local government, 10.4 percent; retail, 8.
8 and hospitality and leisure, 8.7 percent.